NORTH AMERICA

El Niño conditions are officially underway in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean as of June 2026, and confidence continues to grow that this will be a “very strong” or “super” El Niño event, possibly challenging all-time records in terms of sea surface temperature anomalies dating back to the 1800s.

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

El Niño represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle and means that the ocean water temperatures are warmer than average.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared that El Niño conditions are officially present in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The transition has happened quickly, as La Niña conditions were present from January to March 2026. Since then, sea surface temperatures in the ENSO region have warmed rapidly, a sign of a developing strong (or super) El Niño.

This El Niño event is emerging as an “easterly based” El Niño, meaning that sea surface temperatures are highest just off the coast of South America.

Compared to past emerging El Ninos, the sea surface temperature profile is similar to that of June 2023.

However, the rate of warming is faster this year, as the transition out of La Niña in the Central Pacific didn’t happen until April of 2026, whereas it happened in March of 2023 (this was also a La Niña to El Niño transition year).

OpenSnow feels very confident in saying that El Niño conditions are going to prevail through the fall and winter of 2026/27. In fact, NOAA’s latest monthly projection has nearly a 100% chance of El Niño conditions lasting through the winter season. Generally speaking, during El Niño winters, precipitation tends to be above average along the West Coast.

~ Open Snow news release