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Thoughts on the 4th District Race, Why Dems Won't Split the Vote

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In response to Uncertainty in Numbers

Treat With Skepticism

This article fails to take into account several key factors in the 4th District Congressional Race, so its assertion that Mitchell White could take the second-place seat after Tom McClintock is untenable:

As the article states, the total number of registered voters is 434,381. The math here is based on divvying up just the Democrats and Republicans, which totals 313,731. That leaves 120,650 voters unaccounted for in the math.

In today's political climate, the Democratic candidates are vying for all Democrats, some unknown portion of No Party Preference (NPP) voters and some moderate Republicans. The Republicans are, however, realistically only vying for Republicans and some conservative NPPs. Yes, there have been times when Democrats would vote Republican, but in our climate, and in this race, it is extremely unlikely that will happen to any significant degree. Therefore, to discount the potential number of moderate or progressive NPP voters who will vote Dem, as well as moderate Republicans disenchanted with McClintock's abysmal representation who may cross party lines, leads to unrealistic math that is taken completely out of context.

Mitchell White, the second Republican running in the CD-4 race, is running to the right of Tom McClintock and has raised an insignificant amount of money. Most of the Republicans in CD-4 who are unhappy with McClintock are NOT unhappy with him because he is too centrist. He is far enough to the right, and supporting the far-right agenda well enough, that they are extremely likely to stick with an incumbent who has proven that he can raise adequate funds and fight their fight in Washington for them. Why would they abandon him to move further right to an unknown, untested, unproven extremist? There is no logic there, and it is disingenuous to suggest that Mitchell White has any chance of getting 20 percent of the Republican vote.

It is extremely unlikely that the three top Democratic candidates will split the Democratic vote evenly. True, no one knows for sure what turnout will be or how many total votes they will get between them, but it is highly likely that the results will heavily favor either Bateson or Morse or both. Calderon does have a strong social media following, but she has not raised the requisite funds to generate widespread name recognition.

Because of the reasons stated above, I think the conclusions reached in this article should be treated with extreme skepticism by any reader.

~ Annie Ballard, Tahoma, via letter

Lost Votes Make the Difference

I loved your news article, lots of good info, but I believe that 100,000 registered voters got dropped from the characterization of how many voters were Independent or other, at only 17,505. It’s that additional 100,000 that brings the total up to 434,381 and gives the Dems a chance in both the primary and general elections.

Thanks for your consideration!

~ Alec Bash, San Francisco, via letter

American Independent Is Not No Party Preference

I just read your story about the numbers game in our district. It wrongly states that the district only has about 18,000 Independent voters. Sadly, the authors confused, like so many of our voters, the American Independent Party (AMI) with No Party Preference. We have about 91,000 voters with NPP, and if you add the almost 18,000 AMI and other voters, the math brought forward in the article does not work anymore.

Please publicly retract the story or republish it with correct numbers. There is also no way that the second Republican who has raised $3,000 in Q1 will get 20 percent of the Republican vote. Please help to keep the primary focused on facts and ideas rather than unnecessary fear mongering.

~ Silke Pflueger, Tahoe Truckee Indivisible, via letter


Bateson is the Real Deal

Do we want to unseat Tom McClintock, a career politician who has never lived in our district, and whose values do not align with those of the vast majority of people — including conservatives — who do live here? According to the Sacramento Bee editorial board — if beating McClintock in November is the goal, supporting Regina Bateson for Congress in the June 5th primary is the best way to accomplish it. In the endorsement, the Sac Bee says, "If Democrats are to retake the U.S. House this year, they have to flip seats like this one. Bateson would have the best chance in November." The Modesto Bee and the Merced Sun Star have also endorsed Regina Bateson for Congress. Credibility matters in this race. Bateson is the real deal.”

~ Julie Elmen, Truckee, via letter

 

 

 
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October 11, 2018